See the future sooner
Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting
Our FutureFirst™ service gives you 24/7 access to Superforecaster insights on dozens of newsworthy questions.
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Superforecasting® Services
- [FutureFirst™](/content/services/futurefirst/ "FutureFirst™"/index.html)
FutureFirst™
See the future coming with professional crowd-sourced insights and quantified forecasts.
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- [Training](/content/services/training/ "Training"/index.html)
Training
Train your internal strategists and analysts to think like Superforecasters.
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- [All Good Judgment Services](/content/services/ "All Good Judgment Services"/index.html)
All Good Judgment Services
Great decisions require great forecasts. Good Judgment uses the science of Superforecasting to turn your strategic uncertainty into manageable risk.
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A quick peek at what the Superforecasters are saying today…
| Forecast Detail | Today's Forecast |
1-week Change |
|---|---|---|
| When will shares of OpenAI trade publicly? | ||
| A | Before 15 August 2026 | 0% |
| B | Between 15 August 2026 and 14 May 2027 | 91% |
| C | Between 15 May 2027 and 11 February 2028 | 6% |
| D | Not before 12 February 2028 | 3% |
With a subscription to FutureFirst you have access to dozens of daily updated forecasts plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.
Who are the Superforecasters?
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate?
That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
Who We Serve
The world’s most innovative organizations turn to Good Judgment to get early insight on pivotal questions about the future.
Financial Services
Financial services firms succeed when they foresee risks and opportunities before they are priced into the market. Superforecasting helps these firms make smart bets on consumer trends, regulatory developments, and geopolitical shifts that the less-informed crowd has yet to recognize. See how our Covid vaccine Superforecasts anticipated financial markets.
Energy
Energy companies rely on forecasts to decide which resources to develop, which markets to serve, and what prices to charge. Good Judgment helps energy providers quantify geopolitical and regulatory risks so that the firms can build decision models that take account of more than just engineering and economic data. Read about a Wharton collaboration with Good Judgment to forecast electric-vehicle innovations.
Government
Policymakers and military leaders leverage Superforecasting to anticipate events of global consequence more rapidly and precisely. Early, actionable forecasts allow strategists to “get it righter, faster.” Our partnership with ForgeFront makes it easy for UK government clients to access Superforecasting tools. Learn how the US State Department used Superforecasts to inform efforts to eradicate illegal coca crops.
NGOs & Nonprofits
NGOs and nonprofits seeking to make the most of limited resources must forecast where the need will be greatest. Superforecasting accelerates insights on public health and humanitarian crises, so that our clients can deliver timely aid where it’s most needed. Discover how adelphi worked with Good Judgment to anticipate climate-related risks.
Press & Insights
WP Intelligence: Forecasting in the age of AI and prediction markets
Washington Post (27 March 2026)
Most people make forecasts based on gut instinct and headlines. Superforecasters do something different: they follow a disciplined process, combine perspectives across a team, and keep score so they actually get better over time.
Good Judgment’s CEO Dr. Warren Hatch sat down with Washington Post to discuss what that process looks like in practice, how AI fits into the forecasting workflow, and why prediction markets and Superforecaster teams approach the same problems in fundamentally different ways.
Kalshi and Polymarket Create New Competition for Professional Economists
The New York Times (February 2026)
While exploring prediction markets, professional economists, and the future of forecasting, this NYT article says, “It may also be true that neither individual experts nor a collective of thousands are the best at predicting the future. Over the past decade, a group called Good Judgment has developed a model of selecting people with good track records of figuring out what will happen.”
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2026
The World Ahead 2026, The Economist (November 2025)
Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts to The Economist’s forward-looking guide, The World Ahead 2026. Their forecasts focus on the chance of an in-orbit fuel transfer between two Starship vehicles, the likely balance of power after the US midterms, US tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and even a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
Intrigued?
Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.