Better Forecasting for a Brighter Future

Good Judgment training helps a Sovereign Wealth Fund build internal forecasting capabilities to deliver a brighter future for its country.

Finance is all about forecasting. The investor with the earliest insight into future returns reaps the biggest rewards.

The stakes are even higher for Sovereign Wealth Funds. They invest a country’s current assets to generate returns that will help future generations prosper. Here’s how today’s best forecasting practices help a Fund secure a better tomorrow for its citizens.

Client Profile

Industry: Financial Services
Location: Global
Size: >$100 billion in assets
About: This Sovereign Wealth Fund is a global long-term investor in a broad range of private and public asset classes.

All we do is forecasting. We take a view about a company or an asset and decide to invest money on its based on a forecast of the asset cash flow generation in the future. Improving our forecast capacity tends to materially improve our performance.
– Manager at Sovereign Wealth Fund

The Challenge

Design a program to teach best-practice forecasting techniques to analysts in departments ranging from Private Equity to Real Estate.

Our Approach

Take an evidence-based approach to the Fund's talent-development project, using the same tools and techniques that helped the Good Judgment Project win the largest-ever geopolitical forecasting competition.

Our Solution

Set up a controlled experiment with three levels of training (no training, online training only, or in-person workshop), and combine each approach with forecasting practice on Good Judgment Open.

The Results

Participants who attended an in-person workshop in addition to practice forecasting achieved training objectives far more often than did analysts who received no formal training.

Key Benefits of Combining Forecasting Practice with a Good Judgment Training Workshop

“Good Judgment helped us understand people’s biases and see the distribution of views to better check and inform the average forecast.”
Project Participant

“Good Judgment helped us understand people’s biases and see the distribution of views to better check and inform the average forecast.”
Project Participant

“Good Judgment helped us understand people’s biases and see the distribution of views to better check and inform the average forecast.”
Project Participant

“Good Judgment helped us understand people’s biases and see the distribution of views to better check and inform the average forecast.”
Project Participant

“Good Judgment helped us understand people’s biases and see the distribution of views to better check and inform the average forecast.”
Project Participant

Intrigued?

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